Australian almond exports set to reach a new high of 143,000 tons, with exports to China accounting for half!

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) recently released "Australia Almond Annual Report" shows that Australia's almond production in the 2025/26 crop season is expected to set a new record of 175,000 tons, an increase of 21% from the revised 2024/25 season estimate. The record production is expected to drive almond exports to a historical peak of 143,000 tons in the 2025/26 season.

Production

Australia is the world's second-largest almond producer and exporter, second only to the United States, with its industry continuously expanding. The Australian almond industry experienced rapid expansion in the late 2010s, driving strong growth in bearing area during the 2020s. In recent years, the pace of new plantings has significantly slowed, with expected moderate growth in bearing area in the coming years. In the 2014/15 crop season (2015 calendar year), the national planting area was 31,100 hectares, with 90% being bearing area; by 2023, the bearing area doubled to 64,200 hectares, with a bearing ratio of 91%.

Australia's almond industry is expected to continue moderate growth, primarily driven by: limited growth potential for California growers facing increasingly severe water constraints; continuous global almond demand growth, especially in key markets like China and India; shrinking domestic wine industry, particularly in almond-producing regions, freeing up land and water resources for almond cultivation; and challenges in the fresh grape industry, especially in the Sunraysia region, potentially leading to orchard conversions to almonds.

Over the past decade until the 2023/24 season, Australia's almond production doubled from 82,500 tons to approximately 165,000 tons. Horticulture Innovation Australia reports predict a 27% production increase to 210,000 tons over the next six crop seasons. If current positive factors stimulate another wave of new plantings, this forecast may be conservative. In terms of varieties, four U.S. varieties dominate: Nonpareil (44%), Carmel (26%), Monterey (13%), and Price (7%).

The 2024/25 Australian almond harvest will be completed in May 2025. Due to orchard damage from abnormally high temperatures