Below-normal rainfall forecast threatens winter crops and dams

Against this backdrop, a potential super El Niño may emerge as early as this month, and if it remains in place for the rest of 2026, it will probably herald drought in SA’s summer rainfall regions, including the maize belt. Only SA’s eastern coastal regions are expected to have above-normal rain during the wet winter season. The current indications – which are not set in stone – are that much of SA this year may receive less rain than usual, with drought potentially on the cards. “The eastern coastal areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the winter seasons, and below-normal rainfall is expected for the southwestern and southern coastal areas during this period,” the South African Weather Service said in its most recent monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead – in this case until the end of September or spring. Dam levels in the Western Cape are currently at only 46% of their storage capacity compared with 57% at this time last year, and ...