BMI cuts rice futures forecast for 2025 after India eases export restrictions

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 11): BMI has cut its forecast for its key rice futures contracts, at an average price of US$14.85 per cwt (hundredweight) in 2025, following easing of rice exports by India — Malaysia’s top rice supplier. BMI, a unit of Fitch group, said this marks a 6.3% downward revision from its previous Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)-listed second-month rough rice futures. BMI’s 2024 average price outlook has also been adjusted to US$16.35 per cwt, slightly lower than earlier projections. As of Oct 4, 2024, rice futures closed at US$15.25 per cwt. The revision followed India’s move to ease its rice export restrictions end of September, impacting global rice prices. The Indian Ministry of Finance repealed the ban on non-basmati white rice exports and reduced the duty on parboiled rice exports from 20% to 10%. Following these changes, Thailand saw a significant drop in rice export prices. For example, quotations for 5% broken white rice decreased by over 10% between Sept 25 and ...