Bovine livestock cycle signals new phase for beef

The Brazilian relevance tends to increase as signs of adjustment in the supply of animals emerge. In 2025, slaughter levels reached high levels, driven by intense disposal of females, a movement associated with favorable margins, but which encounters natural limits by compromising the replenishment of the herd. The recent slowdown in this disposal indicates the beginning of a retention process, typical of a cycle turnaround, whose effects usually extend for several months. If this transition is confirmed at the beginning of 2026, the availability of animals may become tighter just at a time of heated consumption. In the domestic market, economic growth and low unemployment sustain the demand for beef, although factors such as increased delinquency, caution of families in an electoral year, and eventual sanitary issues may moderate the pace. In the external scenario, the dependence on Brazilian supply remains high. China continues as the main anchor of demand, while other ...