The global cotton market enters the second quarter of 2026 under increasing influence from external factors, with geopolitical risks, climate uncertainties, and a trend towards greater concentration of exportable supply in a few countries standing out. This assessment is from Artigas do Brasil, which closely monitors the sector's movements and points to a more volatile, less predictable environment that is increasingly dependent on variables outside the traditional balance between supply and demand. According to the company, geopolitics remains the main risk vector. Tensions in the Middle East are putting pressure on strategic maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Red Sea, with direct impacts on freight, insurance, and delivery times. This scenario increases volatility and reduces the predictability of global trade flows. “Geopolitics has ceased to be a peripheral factor and has become the main driver of the market. Disruptions in critical ...