The bullish global trend stops, but a great uncertainty remains in cereals

Published 2022년 5월 27일

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the global wheat market and its dynamics, with a focus on Europe, Russia, India, and Canada. It discusses the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and climatic conditions on production estimates and prices. In Europe, while there is concern about water shortage reducing harvest sizes, there is also optimism for a new harvest and a gradual decrease in prices for soft wheat. The continent's trade prospects are influenced by the potential reopening of Black Sea exports. In Russia, a record harvest is anticipated, while in India, production is expected to decrease by 3% with export restrictions. Canada's production estimates are revised upwards, albeit with quality concerns due to delayed sowings. The article also touches on the need for a tonic new harvest in Italy to avoid excessive import dependence and mentions the climatic conditions influencing production forecasts and ready-trade trade activities.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

There are three issues at stake: the evolution of the war in Ukraine, the climatic trend and the reliability of estimates on new crops Soft wheat, after weeks of growth, the price rush slows down Italy There are signs of a decline in prices after weeks of substantial holding and strengthening. The ready-made supply is reduced, but the good quality prospects of the new national harvest are quoted and the wish for a gradual return of the supply from the Black Sea origins. , an adequate level of coverage in the short term which effectively balances prices. The new harvest will be defined in terms of quantity and quality only after harvesting, but the dry winter climate has already reduced the tillering and the number of grains in the ear; to date no evidence of a health problem. The "Bologna type" stable at 435 € / t starting, the bread-making at 410 € / t and the "mixed" ones at 406 € / t; Stronger communities in decline and communities in slight decline in price. Europe Concerns ...

Source: Terraevita