CFR China soybean basis hits a record low on weaker local demand and a bumper Brazil harvest

Published Apr 13, 2023

Tridge summary

The CFR China soybean basis has reached a historical low, coming close to 0 cent/bushel, due to weaker domestic demand and falling negative FOB premiums in Brazil, where a large soybean crop is expected. The basis has fallen 90% week on week and 95% month on month, reflecting reduced open demand for May and June shipments from Brazil. Commercial crushers in China are hesitant to bid amid falling prices, and multiple Chinese crushers and traders anticipate the basis to move into negative territory. However, a lower soybean premium or flat price does not necessarily mean a sudden increase in demand.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The CFR China soybean basis hit a historical low after reaching close to the 0 cent/bushel mark on April 10 amid weaker domestic demand and falling negative FOB premiums in Brazil where a bumper soybean crop is expected and selling progression from farmers is seen lagging. Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the soybean CFR China M1 basis at 5 cents/bushel over May(K) contract on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) April 10, the lowest for a front-month Brazil shipment. It assessed the soybean CFR China M1 flat price at $551.98/mt April 10, down 3.9% week on week. The CFR China M1 basis, corresponding to the CFR China soybean basis for May shipment, has fallen 90% week on week and 95 % month on month, according to S&P Global data. The open demand for May and June shipments from Brazil had been revised down throughout the past month. For the May shipment, it was changed from 10 million mt to 9 million mt and from 9 million mt to 8 million mt for June, reflecting a ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult