Changing trends in China's soy complex raise questions for South America

Published Aug 14, 2023

Tridge summary

China, the world's leading importer of soybeans, has seen intermittent declines in soybean imports since 2019 due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and outbreaks of African swine fever. Some analysts believe that China's soybean imports may have already peaked, as the country aims to increase domestic soybean production and reduce dependence on imports. While this may raise questions for South American producing countries, key agribusiness representatives in the region do not see it as a major cause for concern in the short term, citing China's lack of water resources and lower technical level of manufacturers as barriers to significant increases in domestic production.

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Original content

China is the world's leading importer of soybeans, but changing dynamics and long-term trends may raise questions for South American producing countries, which have shown robust growth in the soybean sector for years to meet growing demand in China. After two decades of near-constant growth, China's soybean imports have seen intermittent declines since 2019 due to the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and outbreaks of African swine fever in China's pig industry, which is the main soybean feed industry. Meanwhile, some analysts believe that China's soybean imports may have already peaked. These trends are in line with China's official plans to increase domestic soybean production and reduce dependence on imports as part of a broader national food security effort - potentially a wake-up call for countries such as Brazil and Argentina that find their main buyers in China. In 2022, China's total demand for soybeans was just over 115 million tons, more than 80% of which was met through ...

Source: Oilworld