El Niño impacts on crop yields and world food trade in 2023-24

Published Jun 19, 2023

Tridge summary

The article highlights the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño phenomenon, predicted to occur in the 2023-24 season, on global agricultural markets. With weak El Niño conditions already observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, there is concern for reduced rainfall and potential droughts in key agricultural regions such as India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern South and Central America. This could lead to changes in trade flows and agricultural yields, including a decrease in Australian wheat exports and an increase in Argentine wheat and soybean exports and production. Brazil's soybean production is also expected to rise, leading to more crude soybean exports and increased soybean meal and oil shipments. However, El Niño could also negatively affect palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to agricultural authorities, meteorological agencies and trade analysts, the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon could affect global agricultural yields and change trade flows in the 2023-24 season, oilworld.ru reports citing S&P Global Platts. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported June 8 that weak El Niño conditions were observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The agency said there was a 56% chance of conditions improving during November-January. Meanwhile, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology raised its probability forecast to "El Nino Alert" from the "El Nino Watch" on June 6, pointing to a higher chance of El Niño forming in late 2023. The likelihood of El Niño is measured by the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and this phenomenon increases the likelihood of less rainfall, including drought in India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and northern South and Central America. The last strong El Niño occurred between 2014 and 2016 and led to ...

Source: Oilworld