The company predicts that the European Union's rapeseed production for 2025/26 will be 20 million tons, higher than last month's forecast of 19.6 million tons, due to increased production in France, Poland, Romania, and Hungary. If the new forecast becomes reality, it will be 19% higher than the 2024/25 season, which was affected by rainfall.
In a report on Friday, Expana lowered its forecast for the 2025/26 European Union sunflower seed production to 8.3 million tons, down by 1.1 million tons or nearly 12 percentage points from last month's forecast, due to production losses in Bulgaria and Romania. The revised forecast is 4.6% lower than last year's 8.7 million tons, which had already been reduced due to drought and heatwaves in Southeast Europe.
Although the hot weather in southern Europe during the summer has damaged the growth of spring crops such as sunflower seeds and corn, it has helped the harvest of winter crops such as rapeseed and wheat.
Expana said that the poor expected harvest in the European Union will lead to a tight supply of sunflower seeds, while the supply and demand of rapeseed will remain balanced, as high demand for crushing will absorb a large amount of production.
Expana said that due to China's imposition of a 75.8% high tariff on Canadian rapeseed, Canadian exports to China will cease, and European rapeseed supply will also be supported by additional imports of Canadian rapeseed.
The company predicts that Canadian exports of rapeseed to China for 2025/26 will be zero, thereby releasing nearly 4 million tons of Canadian rapeseed supply to other markets.