Indian exports lead to a decline in sugar prices, according to hEDGEpoint analysis

The agency's projected production for India in 23/24 is 34 Mt, with 32 Mt available after ethanol diversion. ISMA emphasized that sugar stocks could reach almost 9 Mt by September 30, 2024. They asked for an export allowance of 1 Mt for 23/24 due also to the positive outlook for 24/25. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association added to the bearish trend brought about by ISMA by advocating the granting of export quotas by the government. Pakistan expects a surplus of at least 1.5 Mt, which reduces sugar mills' margins. The price of raw sugar reacted to these export orders, retreating from the 22.7c/lb level. The market is cautious as governments have not yet responded. Allowing both quotas in the 23/24 season would have a strong downward impact on prices, but note, allowing exports from India would reverse efforts to stabilize domestic prices, including restrictions on the ethanol program. Sugar prices underwent corrections after the Indian Sugar Mills Association's (ISMA) request for ...