Global cereal production and trade forecast to fall to three-year lows

FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2022 has been cut by 7.2 million tonnes this month and is now pegged at 2 756 tonnes, 2.0 percent (57 million tonnes) lower year-on-year. By comparison, world cereal production grew by an average of 56 million tonnes per year in the last three years. This month’s downgrade mainly concerns maize and, albeit by a smaller amount, wheat production. Global coarse grain production in 2022 is pegged at 1 462 million tonnes following an almost 5-million-tonne cut to the forecast and is now seen to decline by 3.1 percent compared to the 2021 outturn. The recent reduction principally reflects lower maize harvest prospects in Ukraine, where the impact of the war has made post-harvesting operations prohibitively expensive, compelling many farmers to leave planted areas unharvested. Latest official data also confirm a smaller-than-previously-predicted crop in Serbia, where drought has sharply curtailed yields. Conversely, small upward revisions are ...