Tight Canada rapeseed supplies disrupt exports in the global market

Canola Seed & Rapeseed

Crude Canola Oil & Rapeseed Oil

Canada

Published Dec 11, 2021

Tridge summary

Canada rapeseed production in 2021/22 is forecast down 400,000 tons this month to a 14-year low of 12.6 million. With beginning stocks already tight due to strong demand over the past few years, the smaller crop is suppressing available supplies for both crush and exports. However, due to strong Canadian crush margins, the disruption is disproportionately affecting rapeseed exports over crush.

Original content

Through the first 3 months of the marketing year, crush is down 9 percent while exports are down by almost 50 percent. The plummet in Canada rapeseed exports through the first 3 months of 2021/22 has affected all its major destinations. Exports to the EU fell by nearly two-thirds, the UAE experienced a 50-percent dip, and China and Japan saw 40-percent declines. Markets in North America experienced more muted declines with Mexico down 12 percent and the United States down just 4 percent. With tight global supplies and Canada exports plunging, major importers will likely turn to Australia to offset displaced imports. Opposite to Canada, Australia rapeseed production is revised up 500,000 tons in 2020/21 and 700,000 in 2021/22. As a result, both production and exports are forecast to be records at 5.5 million tons and 4.6 million, respectively. While not as drastic as seed exports, Canada rapeseed oil exports are down nearly 20 percent through the first 3 months of 2021/22. ...

Source: Agfax