Global winter wheat crops in good condition for now, but risks remain

crop conditions are described as good. Analysts note that a recent cold spell likely did not cause significant winterkill and may have improved snow cover, which could benefit crops at the start of spring vegetation. According to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, as of Feb. 5 about 97% of Russia’s winter wheat crop was rated in normal condition, compared to 87% at the same time last year. However, SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat production at 83.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, down from 90.9 million tonnes in 2025/26, as yields are expected to return to average levels. In the United States, winter wheat conditions also remain relatively favorable. In Kansas, 61% of the crop is rated good to excellent, although in Montana only 19% falls into those categories. The main concern is moisture deficits, with about 43% of U.S. winter wheat areas experiencing some level of drought heading into spring. Global wheat ending stocks outside China and India are projected at 135.4 ...