Hedgepoint updates global sugar balance and trade flows

게시됨 2024년 10월 31일

Tridge 요약

The sugar market is experiencing a bullish shift due to reduced production estimates in Brazil's Center-South region caused by adverse weather and fires, alongside anticipated shortfalls in the Northern Hemisphere. Despite challenges like fires and low soil moisture, there's optimism for summer rains to aid sugarcane growth. Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 39.8 Mt, with Europe, Central America, and Thailand contributing to the international market. India's export potential is also noted. For the 2025/26 season in Brazil, challenges such as fires, low soil moisture, and planting delays are expected, but positive summer rain forecasts revise production estimates to 600 Mt. The Center-South region's ethanol production has been high due to mill challenges, leading to low ethanol prices compared to sugar prices. However, shifts in consumer preference towards ethanol in states like Paraná and Minas Gerais are balancing the market. Unica's report indicates strong domestic sales, showing a resilient sugar market amid these challenges.

면책 조항: 위의 요약은 정보 제공 목적으로 Tridge 자체 학습 AI 모델에 의해 생성되었습니다.

원본 콘텐츠

The sentiment in the sugar market has shifted to a more bullish outlook. “Since April, production estimates for the Center-South region have been downgraded due to adverse weather conditions and fires. Although the Northern Hemisphere is expected to recover, its production will still fall short of historical levels. Thus, trade flows are expected to experience significant pressure between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, contributing to an upward trend in the short and medium term,” says Lívea. With the start of the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, the availability of white sugar is expected to increase, exerting downward pressure on the white premium. “This situation is particularly challenging for coastal refineries, especially due to the longer and more severe off-season period in the Center-South region, which is expected to increase the price of raw sugar,” he highlights. According to the analyst, “Brazil is expected to produce around 610 Mt of ...

출처: Portal Do Agronegocio