Hedgepoint updates grain market outlook as new Trump administration begins

Published Jan 30, 2025

Tridge summary

China is observing the Lunar New Year holiday, potentially impacting market trading volumes. Meanwhile, new sanctions from the US government and the repatriation of Chinese citizens in the US are influencing the global trade landscape. In response, Argentina is reducing export taxes on various agricultural products to boost sales. Meanwhile, China has halted five Brazilian soybean exporters due to non-compliance with phytosanitary standards, affecting 40% of China's Brazilian soybean imports. Speculator funds have adjusted their positions, showing less bearish sentiment towards soybeans and soybean oil. The market is also closely monitoring South American weather conditions that could affect crop yields, alongside political developments for direction on commodity prices.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

China has begun its Lunar New Year (Year of the Snake) celebrations and will remain out of the market for a week. “During this period, the absence of Chinese players tends to reduce trading volumes, especially in the futures market,” says Ignacio Espinola, senior analyst for Market Intelligence at Hedgepoint Global Markets. At the same time, the greatest uncertainty for the palm oil and soybean oil markets comes from the actions of Donald Trump, who is threatening to impose new sanctions on China. At the same time, the Chinese government has begun repatriating citizens who were living illegally in the United States, in response to President Trump’s warnings about tariffs and sanctions against countries that refuse to accept deportees. Argentina reduces export taxes (retenciones) “The Argentine government announced the reduction of export taxes (retenciones) until June 2025, in an attempt to promote a more aggressive program of external sales of the country’s agricultural ...

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