Herd reduction expected to increase Brazilian beef prices by 10% next year

Francisco Pessoa Faria, a research associate at the FGV-IBRE (Getulio Vargas Foundation Brazilian Institute of Economics), stated that the rise in beef prices is expected to affect even the profits of rural producers. Last month, the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index, Brazil's official inflation rate) showed an increase of 0.21% in meat prices. Over the past 12 months, meat prices have cumulatively risen by 12.24%, mainly due to the price increases of beef chuck (+17.04%) and beef tenderloin (+16.69%). The price of beef rump cap, traditionally used for barbecue, has increased by 7.68%. "By 2026, the reduction in the cattle cycle will further intensify. In 2024, a large number of cows will be culled, and this trend will continue into 2025. Therefore, we expect the supply of young cattle in the market to decrease, which will drive up their prices," said analyst Fernando Iglesias from the consultancy Safras&Mercado. The cattle cycle operates on the principle that when the slaughter ...