High ethanol prices are expected to extend during the inter-crop season

Ethanol prices continue on an upward trajectory in the Brazilian market, mainly influenced by the reduced supply during the sugarcane inter-harvest period. According to an analysis by Itaú BBA, most of the mills in the Center-South have already concluded or are finishing the 2025/26 harvest, which traditionally supports the appreciation of the product in the coming months. Even with the upward revision of the sugarcane crushing estimate in the Center-South, sugarcane ethanol production is expected to reach 24.1 billion liters in the 2025/26 crop, a drop of 10.1% compared to the previous cycle. Corn ethanol production, on the other hand, tends to grow by 16.6%, reaching 9.6 billion liters. Even so, the total estimated volume of 33.6 billion liters represents a 3.9% decline from the 2024/25 crop, despite being almost 1 billion liters higher than the previous projection. Given this scenario, a significant reduction in domestic consumption of hydrated ethanol will be necessary in the ...