India: Heatwave may hit wheat output, growth may be far below expected, analysts fear price rise

Published 2023년 3월 10일

Tridge summary

A forthcoming heatwave is expected to impact wheat crop yields in India, leading to increased prices and potential export restrictions. The hotter-than-usual February this year and anticipated March-May heatwaves could result in inadequate wheat grain development, with production estimated at 98 MMT, a 1.6% increase from last year. This situation may be mitigated by expanding sowing areas and maintaining adequate buffers, as seen last year. However, union officials remain optimistic, predicting a record 112 million tonnes of output by June, despite the India Meteorological Department's warnings of higher temperatures.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

A possible heatwave is expected to hit wheat crop output, limiting the growth far below earlier estimates, sending wheat prices soaring, and prompting government restrictions on exports. The hottest February this year since 1901 has prompted predictions of increasing heat waves in March-May, raising concerns that wheat grain will not get time to develop completely. Analysts estimate wheat production to be around 98 MMT which is just 1.6% higher as compared to previous forecasts of 4%. Wheat prices will also fluctuate if the crop gets damaged by more than 10%; however, ensuing restrictions on wheat, and a larger sowing area this year may keep the country immune to some extent from the crisis. Earlier this week, India’s chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said that there is an element of uncertainty in agri production if the heatwave forecast is accurate. “The forecast of high temperatures and heat waves in the month of March will have a negative impact on the wheat crop. ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult