India: Rice and wheat should not conflate one with the other

Published Sep 3, 2024

Tridge summary

India is experiencing unique challenges with its rice and wheat stocks due to differing trends in production and consumption. While rice exports have seen record levels, leading to high stocks, wheat exports have plummeted and stocks have hit lows, despite increased consumption. The article highlights the impact of climate change and water availability on rice production, contrasted with wheat's vulnerability to changing weather conditions. It also notes the rise in processed wheat consumption, which is expected to continue with urbanization and higher incomes. The article calls for government action to improve per-acre yields and breed climate-resistant wheat varieties, and to lift export restrictions on rice to address the issue of excess stocks.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Most economics commentators and policymakers tend to club wheat and rice, treating them as part of a “cereal surplus” and “mono-cropping/lack of diversification” problem. But today, the situations in the two crops are very different. In rice, there is a surplus problem: India exported 21.21 million tonnes (mt) of the cereal grain (basmati plus non-basmati) in 2021-22, 22.35 mt in 2022-23, and 16.36 mt in 2023-24. Despite the record shipments, rice stocks in government go downs, at 45.48 mt on August 1, were at an all-time-high for this date. Things have been the other way round for wheat, with exports plunging from a peak of 7.24 mt in 2021-22 to 4.69 mt in 2022-23 and 0.19 mt in 2023-24. The Union government actually banned wheat exports in May 2022. Yet, its Central pool stocks on August 1, at 26.81 mt, were the lowest for this date in recent times, after 2022 (26.65 mt) and 2008 (24.38 mt). Usually, rice stocks are below that of wheat at this time of the year. This is because ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult