Maghreb cereal production troubled by drought

Published 2023년 3월 1일

Tridge summary

North Africa is experiencing poor vegetation conditions and sub-par crop potential due to extensive drought, with Morocco and Algeria being the most affected countries. The drought has caused delays in crop seeding and dry fields, leading to below-average biomass accumulation and significantly lower production forecasts for wheat and barley compared to the five-year averages. The situation threatens to increase demand for European exports, which are already surpassing the 2021/22 marketing year levels. The European Union is expected to enter the 2023/24 marketing year with a weakened net export supply position, as its carry-in wheat stocks are projected to be lower than Russia's, making it less able to meet the increased Maghreb wheat demand in 2023/24.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Comparatively poor vegetation conditions signal sub-par crop potential this year in North Africa. Not shown here are the eastern regions, including Libya and Egypt, where prospects presently are better than in the west. Source: European Commission, JRC MARS bulletin global outlook crop monitoring February 2023. Cereal production across the Maghreb region of northern Africa is under serious threat this season as extensive drought conditions negatively impact crop yield potential in a band stretching from Mauritania in the west to the western reaches of Libya in the east. Morocco appears to be the worst hit country in terms of lost production potential, with rainfall registrations across much of the country since September last year being the lowest in more than 30 years. Aggregate precipitation in the three months to November 30 was 50 to 80pc below the long-term average. The drought conditions caused delays to crop seeding in the autumn of up to 30 days, and some fields were ...

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