North Africa is experiencing poor vegetation conditions and sub-par crop potential due to extensive drought, with Morocco and Algeria being the most affected countries. The drought has caused delays in crop seeding and dry fields, leading to below-average biomass accumulation and significantly lower production forecasts for wheat and barley compared to the five-year averages. The situation threatens to increase demand for European exports, which are already surpassing the 2021/22 marketing year levels. The European Union is expected to enter the 2023/24 marketing year with a weakened net export supply position, as its carry-in wheat stocks are projected to be lower than Russia's, making it less able to meet the increased Maghreb wheat demand in 2023/24.