New fears of a global glut in the grain market?

Published Apr 23, 2024

Tridge summary

Recent developments in the Middle East, including an incident involving an Israeli attack on Iran, have stirred global commodity markets, particularly affecting oil and grain prices. However, Iran's measured response has led to a decrease in oil prices. Despite concerns, the International Grains Council (IGC) predicts a record global grain harvest for the 2024-2025 season, which is expected to reverse an eight-year trend of declining grain carryover stocks. This forecast includes nearly matching last year's wheat production and surpassing previous soybean production records. Nonetheless, the IGC expects a 2% drop in world cereal trade due to lower wheat and maize flows, amidst a grains and oilseeds price index that is 21% lower than the year before, indicating significant shifts in global agricultural markets.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

There have been concerns in recent days that rising violence in the Middle East could affect supplies to the region, including from Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter and an ally of Iran, Commonwealth Bank analyst Denis Voznesensky said. What's more, there were explosions over an Iranian city on Friday that many described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran downplayed the incident and said it had no plans to retaliate -- a response that appeared to be aimed at averting a region-wide war. That had an immediate impact on oil, which fell on Friday after prices jumped earlier on reports that Israel had attacked Iran. By the end of the day, market fears of a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East appeared to have eased. Still, oil prices continue to put upward pressure on ethanol and its feedstocks, which include corn and soybeans. Wheat prices remain under pressure from strong supplies of wheat from Russia, soybeans from South America and corn from South America and ...
Source: Agri
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