Global: Rabobank expects pork prices to rise in 2025

Published 2024년 12월 5일

Tridge summary

The Netherlands is experiencing a significant decline in its pig population, expected to be between 10-15%, due to state farm purchase programs as part of an environmental policy. This has led to a decrease in the sow population by 6.3% in June 2024. The decrease in pig numbers, along with high epidemic pressure on livestock in EU countries and a potential supply shortage, is expected to drive up EU pork prices. However, future pork exports are uncertain due to the possibility of anti-dumping measures from China. Additionally, feed prices in the Netherlands are predicted to slightly increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to a drought in corn and soybean producing areas in North and South America, leading to an overall increase in production costs for many companies.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The biggest decline in a country comparison is predicted for the Netherlands, where the pig population is expected to fall by 10-15%. The most important reason is state farm purchase programmes as part of environmental policy. This is one of the reasons why the Dutch sow population had already declined by 6.3% in June 2024 compared to December 2023. According to analysts, pig farmers in many EU countries are facing high epidemic pressure on their livestock, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and African swine fever (ASF). Rabobank expects EU pork prices to rise in the medium term in view of the likely supply shortage of pork in combination with a seasonal increase in demand. However, future EU pork exports are subject to great uncertainty due to the threat of anti-dumping measures from China. For this reason, meat companies are refraining from raising prices, especially for exports to Asia. Taking into account ...

Source: Agromeat