Rabobank reduces the 2023/24 global coffee harvest forecast

Published 2023년 8월 30일

Tridge summary

Rabobank, a Dutch bank with a strong presence in agricultural finance, has revised its projection for global coffee production in 2023/24 to 172.6 million bags, down 1.6 million bags from its previous forecast. This decrease is mainly due to revisions in production estimates for Colombia and Vietnam, both of which are facing unfavorable weather conditions. Despite the reduced production, Rabobank maintains its estimate of a balanced global supply for 2023/24, citing declining demand in non-producing countries. Additionally, the bank highlights a significant decline in coffee imports in the EU plus UK region and the United States, along with falling coffee prices in the US due to competition and concerns about low consumer sentiment.

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Original content

The Dutch bank, which has a strong presence in agricultural finance, projected global coffee production in 2023/24 at 172.6 million bags, down 1.6 million bags from its previous forecast, due to revisions to low, mainly from production in Colombia and Vietnam. Colombia's crop was reduced from 13.6 million bags to 12.5 million bags, and Vietnam's was reduced to 29 million bags, half a million bags less than expected. Both countries are dealing with less than ideal weather. Rabobank, however, maintained its estimate of a balanced global supply in 2023/24, citing falling demand in non-producing countries. "Import demand figures were very dismal during the second quarter of 2023," the report said, citing a 13.4% year-on-year decline in net imports into the EU plus UK region. Coffee imports into the United States fell 9.6% in the second quarter ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio