Rice outlook for 2025: Ample supply and price pressure, crops point out

게시됨 2024년 11월 26일

Tridge 요약

For the year 2025, Brazil's rice production is forecasted to see a significant increase, with a projected growth of 12.3% to around 11.6 million tons. This is based on improved productivity and an expansion in the planted area, as per projections by Safras Consultoria. The country's total rice production within Mercosur could hit 16 million tons, leading to increased pressure on prices, especially in the early part of 2025. The rise in supply, coupled with carryover stocks of over 1 million tons from 2024, could result in lower prices, potentially around R$80.00 to R$90.00 per bag, during the peak harvest season. To counteract this, efforts will need to be made to boost domestic consumption and increase exports by 25% to strategic markets such as Central America, the Caribbean, and Mexico, while reducing imports by 13% to avoid an oversupply in the domestic market.
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원본 콘텐츠

The scenario for rice production in Brazil in 2025 is one of ample availability, with a significant recovery in productivity and an increase in the planted area. National production is expected to reach approximately 11.6 million tons, representing a growth of 12.3% compared to the previous year. In the context of Mercosur, production could total up to 16 million tons, which tends to put even more pressure on prices, especially in the first half of next year. The projections are from Safras Consultoria. This increase in supply will be combined with carryover stocks of over 1 million tons, a result of the decline in domestic consumption and weaker rice sales in 2024. As a result, total availability in Brazil could reach almost 14 million tons. As a result, analyst Evandro Oliveira, from Safras & Mercado, believes that prices could fall to between R$80.00 and R$90.00 per bag (equivalent to US$14 to US$16) at the peak of the harvest, between February and March 2025. To balance this ...

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