Russian wheat output expected to fall as farmers pivot to oilseeds

Russia’s wheat production is forecast to decline slightly in the 2026-27 marketing year (July–June) as farmers shift toward more profitable oilseed crops, potentially tightening global grain supplies and reshaping Black Sea export flows despite continued strong shipment volumes from the region. Winter grain sowing in Russia for the 2026 harvest has been completed on the planned area. Officials report that weather conditions have generally been favorable, keeping crop development in line with expectations and supporting early forecasts for a good harvest. S&P Global Energy CERA projects Russian wheat output at 84.1 million metric tons (mt) in MY 2026–27, down from 88.2 mil mt in MY 2025–26. SovEcon forecasts a slightly lower 83.8 million mt, reflecting a reduction in wheat area from 26.9 million hectares this season to 26.3 million hectares next year. The Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates the upcoming harvest at 86 million–91 million mt, noting that winter ...