Global: SARA expects a later harvest and 510 kg/ha average wheat yield

Published Jun 15, 2023

Tridge summary

The Center for Economic Research in Agriculture (SARA) predicts that cereals and canola harvest in certain areas may be delayed due to higher moisture, with a projected average yield of 510 kg for wheat and 490 kg for barley. The total harvest for wheat is estimated to be 6.3 million tons, with a range of ±5%, and for barley, it is expected to be 560 thousand tons. However, international markets are experiencing a downward trend in prices for Russian wheat, barley, and sunflower oil, despite the USDA forecasting a high world wheat crop of 790 million tonnes. The rapeseed crop is expected to remain strong, and FOB Malaysian palm oil prices have decreased from US$1,020 to US$940 due to high oil crop forecasts and falling oil market prices.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The Center for Economic Research in Agriculture (SARA) expects the harvest of cereals and canola to be delayed due to higher moisture. Based on historical climate data and the rainfall during the important months for grain production, economists expect the average yield per hectare of wheat to be 510 kg, and the entire wheat harvest in the country to amount to 6.3 million tons. Last year's data were also for national production in the amount of 6.3 million tons. The probability of this scenario is calculated at 55%, while the pessimistic development is calculated with a 30% chance. The forecasts of the European monitoring center JRC Mars are for a yield of 5.68 t/ha. The current yield estimate for barley is 490 kg/ha and the JRC Mars figures are for 5.23 t/ha. The most likely volumes for barley will amount to 560 thousand tons. Estimates for average yields for canola are expected to be around 270 kg/ha, and for JRC Mars they are for 304 kg/ha. The total amount of rapeseed ...

Source: Agroplovdiv