Taiwan is surrounded by the sea and located in the subtropical monsoon zone. Its marine island climate characteristics create four seasonal features of spring rain, plum rain, typhoons, and cold waves. Among these, typhoons often bring significant disaster losses to Taiwan. According to the agricultural statistics yearbook for 2023 and 2024, up to 80% of agricultural losses are caused by typhoon disasters. Additionally, observing typhoon agricultural disaster reports, the Koinu typhoon caused approximately NT$600 million in agricultural losses in 2023; in 2024, Kaemi, Santoku, and Khanun typhoons caused agricultural losses of around NT$6.7 billion, reflecting typhoons as the primary factor in Taiwan's agricultural disaster losses. Furthermore, the "2024 National Climate Change Science Report" jointly issued by the National Science and Technology Committee and the Environmental Protection Agency indicates that Taiwan's typhoon intensity will continue to strengthen, with experts warning that typhoons will become a major concern for agricultural disaster losses.
Due to increasingly apparent climate change and abnormal weather, threats and risks to agriculture are intensifying. To compensate for natural disaster losses in agriculture, enhance agricultural operational guarantees, and stabilize farmers' incomes, the government established an agricultural insurance system and enacted agricultural insurance legislation, comprehensively promoting agricultural insurance policies.
Given the extreme fluctuations in agricultural insurance loss rates in recent years, the author previously published a study in the sixth semi-annual publication of the Agricultural Insurance Fund Foundation titled "Simulating 2024 Agricultural Insurance Claims Using Monte Carlo Statistical Methods" to understand the distribution of loss rates across different insurance types. The research was based on historical data trend fluctuations, using random number simulations for "yield" and "price" variables across different insurance types, and calculating claim amounts and loss rates according to each insurance type's policy terms.
In the aforementioned research, it was discovered that livestock insurance and rice income insurance are the largest agricultural insurance categories, with coverage spanning Taiwan, and each accounting for over 30% of total agricultural insurance premium income. Livestock insurance loss rates have been consistently stable at around 70% in recent years. However, rice income insurance loss rates have dramatically fluctuated, with rates below 100% in years without typhoon invasions, but sharply rising to over 500% during years with strong typhoons. This demonstrates typhoons' impact on rice losses, an