Soybean CFR China prices to soften on ample supply, flat China demand

Published 2024년 12월 20일

Tridge summary

The CFR China soybean price is expected to decrease in Q1 2025 due to increased production in Brazil and stable supply in China, with the flat price potentially dropping to $400-450/mt. Brazil has become China's largest soybean supplier, surpassing the US, and China is diversifying its import sources, with concerns over a China-US trade conflict. China's soybean imports are projected to decrease slightly in MY 2024-25, but domestic demand is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, driven by the poultry and aquaculture sectors.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The CFR China soybean price is set to come under pressure in the first quarter of 2025 from rising production in Brazil and plateauing demand in China. The soybeans CFR China flat price is closing 2024 down 24% year on year at $439.91/mt as of Dec. 12, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Market watchers expect the price to slip to the $400-450/mt range in Q1 2025. Brazil’s soybean production is projected to reach a record 169 million mt in marketing year 2024-25 (January-December), up 10.5% year on year. China’s soybean supply is expected to be stable as planting accelerates and global supply loosens with improved weather in South America. “Higher soybean production forecast for Brazil has been pretty bearish for the market unless rains do not come and affect projected yields,” an East China based trader said. Monitoring weather changes and soybean growth in South American production regions will be critical to the market. Brazil has surpassed the US to become China’s ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult