Soybean oil market is expected to experience a worsening shortage

situation is exacerbated by changes in China’s trade policy, where the reduction of import duties on American soybeans from 23% to 13% has not eliminated the competitive advantage of Brazilian raw materials, which are subject to a tariff of only 3%. An important market driver is the expectation of a revised forecast for the USDA’s November report. Analysts anticipate an increase in American soybean yields and exports, while ending stocks are declining, creating an additional positive backdrop. These expectations are reinforced by unfavorable weather conditions in the main soybean-producing states of the United States, where a rainfall deficit could lead to yields falling below the projected 53.5 bushels per acre. The Chinese domestic market remains challenging: despite record soybean imports (95.68 million tonnes in January-October) and high crushing volumes, supply significantly exceeds demand. Commercial soybean oil stocks have reached 1.199 million tonnes, a seven-year high, ...