Soybean quotations in Chicago continue to fall, which is lowering soybean prices in Ukraine.

We predicted that the speculative growth in soybean quotes in Chicago, caused by China's promises to buy American soybeans, would quickly stop in the face of reality and prices would decrease, but the market is falling more slowly, hoping for an increase in supplies from the USA to China. At the same time, China has not yet provided written confirmation of its commitments to buy 12-25 million tons of soybeans from the USA, which were declared by American officials after the meeting of Trump and Xi in October, and is instead buying small batches of 300-500 thousand tons weekly, which does not guarantee the purchase of 12 million tons by the end of 2025. Chicago soybean futures for January after the meeting of Trump and Xi rose by 13.7% over the month, and then began to decline gradually, and over the last week fell by 3.1% to $401.2/ton (-3.3% for the month), but are still trading at 3.2% higher than three months ago. In 2025/26 MY (September 1 – December 7) the USA exported only 12.9 million tons of soybeans, which is 45.2% less than the corresponding figure last year and makes up 29% of the forecasted season export.