Soybean quotes in Chicago continue to fall under pressure from fundamental factors

January soybean futures in Chicago fell another 2.1% to $378.5/t (-9.2% per month) over the past week and are trading at last year’s level, completely losing the speculative growth caused by expectations of increased soybean sales from the US to China. The pressure on quotes is being exacerbated by fundamental factors, including: 1. Very favorable weather conditions for soybean crops in Brazil (with abundant precipitation) are forcing analysts to increase forecasts for the soybean harvest in Brazil in the MY 2025/26 to 180 million tons and above, which significantly exceeds the USDA forecast of 175 million tons and the previous season’s harvest of 171.5 million tons. Recall that active soybean harvesting in Brazil will begin at the end of January. 2. A new law in the state of Mato Grosso will eliminate tax breaks for participants in the forest protection program from January 1, so if international traders withdraw from the agreement, it will dramatically increase the supply of soy ...