Soybeans may drop below R$ 100/sack in 2026 with exchange rate and record crop in Brazil

The soybean market faces a scenario of price pressure for the 2025/26 crop, driven by the expectation of a new record crop in Brazil and the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar. According to a report released by Itaú BBA's Agro Consulting, soybean prices may fall below R$ 100 per bag in regions such as Sorriso (MT), significantly reducing the operating margins of producers. Record crop in Brazil and rising global supply Despite lower production in the United States, the projection of a 175 million-ton harvest in Brazil is expected to ensure a stable global supply and demand balance in 2025/26. National productivity tends to normalize, while the planted area continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. This scenario should keep stocks at levels similar to the previous crop, limiting upward reactions in international soybean prices. La Niña brings climate risks, but forecast favors Brazil The La Niña climate phenomenon, already forming, may negatively affect ...