Stagnation of world apple production in 2023 is confirmed by USDA analysts

Published 2023년 12월 26일

Tridge summary

The USDA report predicts a minimal increase in global apple production for the 2023/24 season, confirming the stagnation of global apple production. Despite stagnant production, global apple trade has been decreasing, with the share of apples in world trade falling rapidly. While the report also forecasts a sharp increase in apple trade volumes, it is unlikely to happen given the stagnation in production and consumption, as well as the growing number of trade barriers and restrictions.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

According to the analytical report “FreshApples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade” from the USDA, apple production in the 2023/24 season will increase by 175 thousand tons to 83.1 million tons. Many analysts mistakenly considered this to be a forecast for production growth, but an increase of 175 thousand tons is equivalent to 0.002% and is significantly below the standard error of such forecasts. Therefore, this report actually confirms the stagnation of global apple production in the new season. This is quite unusual, because previously world apple production grew quite dynamically, despite the fact that world trade stagnated. According to EastFruit analysts, global apple trade in 2018-2022 decreased by an average of 1.1% per year, even in value terms, and this in conditions of high dollar inflation in recent years! By comparison, overall trade in fruit and vegetable products increased by 4.3% per year. It is therefore not surprising that the share of apples in world ...

Source: Eastfruit