The global and Bulgarian grain markets are entering a period of heightened uncertainty, marked by geopolitical tension, increased production costs, and contradictory price signals. A key factor in this dynamic is the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which is already having a tangible impact on energy, fertilizer, and logistics chain prices, and thus on the entire agri-food system. In March, global food prices recorded a second consecutive monthly increase, with the FAO index reaching 128.5 points – an increase of 2.4% compared to February and 1% on an annual basis. The upward trend is mainly due to the rise in energy resources, which directly affects agricultural production costs. Grain crops also saw an increase – by 1.5% on a monthly basis, driven by a 4.3% rise in wheat prices due to worsening weather prospects in the USA and higher fertilizer costs in Australia. Despite this, the global grain market remains relatively well-supplied, which limits a sharper rise in ...