The corn market has changed, says analyst

In December of last year, corn in the state was trading about R$ 9 per bag above current levels, a period that marked the beginning of a trajectory of appreciation that took quotations to almost R$ 75 per bag, considered the ceiling for 2025. This recent memory sustains the expectation of a new price reaction, especially in view of the structurally firm demand from the corn ethanol industry. However, the evaluation points out that the context has changed significantly. The 2025 crop was a record both in Mato Grosso and in Brazil, while exports fell short of the expected potential. In addition, there was a relevant recomposition of inventories, altering the balance between supply and demand observed previously. In the analysis presented, the passing inventories in the state are expected to be significantly more comfortable in 2026 than in the first half of this year. This factor tends to significantly modify the dynamics of price formation throughout the cycle, reducing the ...