Canada: The good, bad and ugly of new crop profitability

Published Jan 20, 2022

Tridge summary

Provincial agriculture departments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan have released crop production cost guidelines for 2022, which indicate potential profitability for new crop canola and oats, and possible disadvantages for soybeans and barley. Manitoba assumes a new crop price of $16.50 a bu. for canola and $5.75 a bu. for oats, leading to strong profitability, especially in Manitoba's black soil zone. Saskatchewan's assumptions result in canola being one of the most profitable crops and red lentils more profitable than canola. However, average barley yields do not cover total expenses in both provinces, and soybeans also show a lack of profitability. These reports are expected to influence farmers' crop choices, potentially leading to increased canola and oat acreage and decreased soybean and barley acreage in PEI and Prince Edward Island, with peas and flax being more important in Saskatchewan than Manitoba.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

New crop canola and oats look like winners while soybeans and barley appear to be dogs. At least, that’s the analysis from provincial agriculture departments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Manitoba’s crop production cost guidelines have been published for several weeks while Saskatchewan’s Crop Planning Guide 2022 is more recent. Cross referencing the two is an interesting exercise. In Manitoba, oats are second only to pinto beans for projected profitability. Average Manitoba oat yields are 110 bushels per acre with a new crop projected price of $5.75 a bu. providing strong returns over total costs. The Saskatchewan analysis uses a projected price of $6 a bu. Oats don’t pencil out very well in the brown and dark brown soil zones of the province, but in the black soil zone, where most of the oats are grown, the profitability matches the strong Manitoba numbers. On canola, Manitoba assumes a new crop price of $16.50 a bu., while Saskatchewan uses $17 and that makes canola one of the ...

Source: The Western Producer