The long-term trend in the wheat market is a global decline in stocks

Global wheat consumption is forecast at 804 million tonnes in 2023-24, an increase of nine million tonnes over last year. Meanwhile, production is estimated to have fallen to 787 million tonnes, a seven million tonne decline. That will cause a 17 million tonne decline in world ending stocks. “This year we expect to see the largest decrease in world ending stocks since 2012,” said Corey Mamchuk, a wheat trader with Cargill. The gap between supply and demand will be exaggerated this year because of smaller harvests in Canada, Russia and Australia, but it highlights an emerging pattern. “The longer-term trend on wheat is that consumption has been growing faster than production,” he told international buyers attending Cereals Canada’s 2023 New Crop Wheat Report webinar. “Globally, we add about 10 million tonnes of wheat per year, but demand increases by 11 million tonnes per year.” World wheat-ending stocks are still forecast at a robust 264 million tonnes but stocks among major ...