The price of U.S. soybeans collapses in the face of a fatal combination made up of geopolitical problems and lack of external competitiveness.

On Wednesday, December 31, the CME Group January 2026 soybean contract closed at $378.6 per ton with an intraday drop of $5.7 per ton, while the May 2026 position ended at $389.8 per ton with a drop of almost $5.0 per ton. Soybean meal and oil futures also fell sharply. It is unclear whether, at the current pace of sales and with the geopolitical situation heating up, the U.S. will be able to meet the expected placement of soybean shipments forecast for the 2025/26 marketing season. The USDA's estimate of U.S. exportable soybean supply for 2025/26 is 44.5 million tons, a figure that seems difficult to achieve if exports to China do not resume. The U.S. faces another additional problem: the FOB value of soybeans leaving the Gulf of Mexico terminals is too expensive due to demand pressure from the local oil industry, which requires increasing amounts of beans to supply the biodiesel manufacturing industry. The USDA estimates that U.S. soybean oil consumption in the 2025/26 cycle ...