The USDA improved its forecast for world wheat and corn production

Published Nov 11, 2024

Tridge summary

The USDA's November report has revised global wheat production estimates for 2024/25, raising the forecast to 794.7 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from October, largely due to a higher harvest forecast in Kazakhstan. However, production figures for Russia, the EU, Argentina, and Brazil have been lowered, leading to a slight decrease in the global wheat exports forecast. Meanwhile, China's wheat imports are expected to slightly decrease. For corn, the global production estimate has been increased to 1.219 billion tons, but the US harvest forecast has been reduced due to lower than expected yields. The corn export forecast has been adjusted downward for Brazil and South Africa, while the consumption forecast has been raised, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending stocks forecast.

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Original content

This is evidenced by the USDA report for November, writes ASAP Agri in Telegram. It is noted that world production of wheat in 2024/25 MR is expected at the level of 794.7 million tons. This is 0.65 million tons higher than the October forecast. Thus, the forecast for Kazakhstan was increased, compensating for the decrease for Russia, the EU, Argentina and Brazil. In particular, the estimate of the wheat harvest in Kazakhstan was increased by 2 million tons to 18 million tons. At the same time, production in Russia was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 81.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons below official data for the EU — by 0.4 million tons, up to 122.6 million tons, Argentina — by 0.5 million tons, up to 17.5 million tons. The estimate of world wheat exports for the current season decreased by 1.15 million tons, to 214.7 million tons. However, among key exporters, only Kazakhstan worsened its prospects by 0.5 million tons, to 10 million tons. For Turkey, the export forecast ...

Source: AgroPortal.ua