USA may reach the new harvest almost without rice and must increase area

Rice

United States

Market & Price Trends

Published Feb 14, 2024

Tridge summary

The US is projected to face a shortage of long-grain rice before harvest due to a rapid pace of exports, which are expected to reach 97.4 million cwt, significantly higher than USDA's projected exports of 61 million cwt. This surge in exports is attributed to supply shortages in Mercosur countries and a large US harvest. To compensate, the USDA may increase imports. Meanwhile, a large soybean harvest in China indicates that rice may be the preferred crop in 2024, potentially leading to increased acreage. The US held over 50% of total rice exports until 2021, and the Western Hemisphere accounts for nearly 13% of global imports. Rice production and exports for 2023/24 are forecasted to increase by 36% and 82% respectively. The article also discusses a calculation method based on the average of the previous four weeks.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.

Original content

(By Dwight Roberts, USRPA) It was a newsworthy week for global rice markets, headlined and perhaps punctuated in the US by the realization that the current pace of exports would indicate that we would actually run out of long-grain rice before harvest! Now, history has taught us that “running out of rice” is highly unlikely, but if the current pace of exports remains stable through the balance of the year, projections would put us at 97.4 million cwt, while USDA projected exports stand at 61 million cwt. We hope to find ourselves somewhere in the middle, as we cannot sell what we don't have. US industry will likely find itself short on supplies at harvest time, much like our South American counterparts at this time. Our exceeded exports are largely due to supply shortages in Mercosur countries and a large harvest in the US compared to previous years. Strong demand in the domestic market, exports of milled rice to Haiti and Iraq and a general situation of lower industrial yields ...

Source: Planetaarroz