What South African consumers can expect from food price inflation this year
South Africa
Published Apr 2, 2021
Tridge summary
Last week, the South African Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) mildly lifted its forecast for 2020/21 summer grain and oilseeds production from the previous month by 1% to 18,7 million tonnes (this compared with 17,6 million tonnes in 2019/20 production season). The upward adjustments were on maize, soybeans and sorghum, whereas sunflower seed, dry bean and groundnut production were revised.
Original content
If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21 maize, soybean and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,9 million tonnes (up 4% y/y, and second-largest harvest on record), 1,7 million tonnes (up 39% y/y, a record harvest), and 696 290 tonnes (down 12% y/y). The maize production estimate is slightly below the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) ‘s estimated 16,7 million tonnes and the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)’s estimated 17,0 million tonnes. Considering the optimistic yield estimates we (at Agbiz) received from farmers and observations in places we have been in, I am inclined to think that there is still room for the CEC to lift further its maize production estimates in the coming months. The current maize production data essentially mean that South Africa would remain a net exporter in the 2021/22 marketing year, starting in May 2021 (corresponds with the 2020/21 production season). South Africa’s annual maize consumption is roughly ...
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