The wheat market is experiencing a period of increased volatility and price support, driven by both internal and external factors. In Brazil, the outlook for a drop in production in 2026, which may reach the lowest level in the last six years, contrasts with a relatively balanced international scenario, but pressured by climatic and geopolitical issues. The combination of these elements has directly influenced the behavior of quotations, both in the domestic market and in international exchanges. The estimate for the Brazilian wheat crop in 2026 points to a production of approximately 6.6 million tons, which represents a 16% drop compared to the previous cycle, with a reduction of over 1.2 million tons. The planted area is expected to total 2.22 million hectares, a 9.2% decrease from 2025, while the average productivity is projected at 2,979 kg per hectare, a 7.5% decline. According to analyses by Cepea, this scenario reflects the low profitability of recent harvests, coupled with ...