Chilean Citrus Sector Faces Varied Prospects Following Projected Growth

Chile's citrus sector anticipates overall export growth heading into the 2025 season, though prospects differ significantly across fruit types. The Chilean Citrus Committee forecasts an 11% year-on-year (YoY) increase in total citrus exports for 2025, reaching approximately 444,000 metric tons (mt). This projection stems largely from favorable climatic conditions experienced such as adequate winter chill, plentiful rainfall in central regions, and conducive spring weather for fruit setting. However, potential adverse weather remains a factor since harvests started in April and lasts until June.

Outlook for Chilean Citrus in 2025

As a result of the favorable conditions and strategic planting decisions, export volumes for several citrus types are expected to increase significantly. Mandarins and clementines lead the current export expansion, with projected volume increases of 32% and 25%, respectively. Lemon exports are also expected to rise by 6% YoY. These export trends align with production figures from the late 2024 report of the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) covering the 2024/25 season. The report highlighted production gains driven by increased planted area. Mandarins are up 13.1% YoY to 250,000 mt, while lemons have increased 2.6% YoY to 197,000 mt.

The expansion in acreage for mandarins and lemons, particularly in central regions such as Valparaíso, Metropolitana, and O'Higgins, reflects the growers' strategic shift. Many are turning to these citrus varieties as more profitable and sustainable alternatives to crops like avocados, thanks to their adaptability and relatively lower water requirements. For instance, lemon planted area is projected to reach 10,400 hectares (ha), continuing a steady growth trend observed over the past decade.

Despite the positive outlook for other citrus fruits, orange exports are expected to drop significantly by 18% YoY. The Citrus Committee believes this is mainly due to lower volumes of the Fukumoto orange variety. This forecast differs slightly from an earlier USDA prediction, which suggested a small 2.2% YoY increase in orange production and a 3% YoY rise in exports for the 2024/25 season, linked to more planting in the Metropolitana and O'Higgins regions.

Figure 1. Chilean Citrus Export Volume by Countries 2020-2024

Source: Tridge, TradeMap

Ongoing Drought Remains a Major Challenge

The sustained drought in the northern Coquimbo region, which holds over 42% of Chile's mandarin area, is a continuing difficulty for the citrus sector. Water scarcity there significantly impacted 2023/24 production and remains a key factor affecting the country's total output, despite growth in central zones.

Chile heavily relies on the US as its primary citrus export destination. According to USDA FAS data for the 2024 marketing year for which figures are available, the US imported roughly 97% of Chilean mandarins, 95% of oranges, and 65% of lemons. Acknowledging this concentration of exports in the US market, the Chilean Citrus Committee is rolling out promotional campaigns aimed at US retailers and consumers through point-of-sale initiatives and social media outreach. Concurrently, a dedicated lemon campaign is set for Japan, featuring a workshop at Expo Osaka to underscore the fruit's quality, availability, and sustainability credentials.

Figure 2. Top Trade Flow of Chilean Citrus

Source: Tridge

In summary, Chile’s citrus industry is set for notable export growth in 2025, driven by increased mandarin and lemon plantings and favorable weather. However, the sector faces a decline in orange exports and ongoing drought in the Coquimbo region. Success will depend on managing these challenges while strengthening the US market and exploring opportunities in Japan.