Chile's Cherry Exports Dominate Southern Hemisphere Market

The Chilean cherry market is experiencing significant growth, with exports surpassing 410,000 metric tons (mt) in the 2023/24 season according to Chile’s General Directorate for Export Promotion (ProChile), a fourfold increase over the past decade. This positions Chile as the leading cherry exporter in the Southern Hemisphere, driven largely by strong demand from China. The Chinese market values cherries not only for their taste, but also as symbols of well-being and good fortune, especially during the New Year, when they are commonly gifted. For this reason, cherries sold to China must meet high standards of quality, size, firmness, and appearance.

Chile benefits from favorable conditions compared to its competitors, such as Türkiye, the United States (US), Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. It has a well-established fruit industry and cherries that are highly profitable. To maintain competitiveness, Chilean producers aim to shorten delivery times to China, focusing on early-harvest cultivars and regions like Ovalle, which have lower cold requirements and allow for earlier production. However, the long shipping times—ranging from 20 to 35 days—present a significant challenge in ensuring the fruit arrives in optimal condition.

Alongside logistical challenges, the industry is also adapting to climate change through resilient varieties, efficient irrigation, and shifting planting zones, which affects both production schedules and fruit quality. Despite these hurdles, Chile continues to innovate with advanced breeding programs and precision agriculture, maintaining its dominant position in the cherry export market, driven by strategic adjustments to meet the evolving demands of the global market.

Chile's Fruit Exports Reach Decade-High USD 9.3 Billion

Chile's 2023/24 fruit export season ended in Aug-24, reaching a decade-high USD 9.3 billion free-on-board (FOB), a 13.1% increase from 2022/23, according to Chile's Office of Agricultural Studies and Policies (Odepa). The export composition is as follows:

Figure 1. Chile's 2023/24 Fruit Export Breakdown by Category

In the first four months of the 2024/25 season, cherries remained Chile's top fresh fruit export, reaching USD 1.1 billion FOB for 187,800 mt. Exports surged 75% in value and 158.7% in volume compared to the same period last season, with China absorbing 89% of shipments and 90% of export value. The near threefold increase in volume led to a price drop, with the FOB price falling to USD 5,837/mt from USD 8,862/mt in the previous season.

For the entire 2023/24 season, cherries remained Chile's leading fruit export, totaling USD 3.1 billion FOB, a 19.9% year-on-year (YoY) increase, while volume remained stable, declining slightly by 0.2%. China dominated the market, accounting for 92% of the export value and 90.8% of volume. The FOB price for cherries exported to China rose to USD 7,504/mt from USD 6,380/mt, one of the highest among major destinations. Russia and Japan recorded even higher prices at USD 11,839/mt and USD 10,162/mt, though their combined share of total exports remained negligible.

Cherries Lead Chilean Fruit Crop Expansion With 13% Annual Growth in Planted Area

Cherries have experienced the most significant expansion among Chilean fruit crops, with the planted area increasing by 32,295 hectares (ha) over the past five years, representing an average annual growth rate of 13% over 5 years. According to the 2024 report by Chile's Office of Agricultural Studies and Policies (Odepa) and the Center for Information Resources for Agriculture (Ciren Fruit Cadastre), cherries are now among the country's leading fruit species alongside table grapes, and nuts like walnuts, and hazelnuts. This rapid growth surpasses all other fruit crops, with hazelnuts following at a distant second, expanding by 11,959 ha and a TCPA-5 of 8.3%.

Table 1. Distribution of Cherry tree's area in Chile in 2019 and 2024.

Chile's cherry industry, which expanded to 70,686 ha and generated over USD 3 billion in exports last season, faces challenges from oversupply and heavy reliance on China, which absorbs over 90% of shipments. This market concentration has contributed to a 50% YoY price decline. Despite this, demand in China remains strong, driven by the fruit's popularity during the winter holiday season. Efficient logistics, including expedited customs clearance and inland distribution, ensure fresh deliveries, supporting continued growth. To sustain profitability, industry experts emphasize quality improvements, cost optimization, and market diversification amid evolving global trade dynamics.

Strategic Innovation and Market Adaptation Fuel Expansion

Chile's cherry exports to China have grown significantly, driven by long-term research and strategic market positioning. Initiated nearly three decades ago by the Agricultural Research Institute (INIA) in Chile Chico, a small town in Aysén Region in Southern Chile, , the region's cherry production has expanded, benefiting from late-season harvest timing that initially provided a competitive edge. However, as late production is no longer a differentiating factor, differentiation now relies on quality and variety selection, such as the Kordia cherry, which thrives in the region's climate.

Chile remains the world's top cherry exporter, with projections of 131.6 million boxes exported in the 2024/25 season—an increase of nearly 59% from the previous season. To sustain growth, research on new varieties, including Areko and Sweet Stephany®, is underway, alongside efforts to mitigate climate-related risks. Continued innovation and market adaptation will be essential for Chilean cherries to maintain and expand their presence in China.

Figure 2. Countries Competing With Chile for Fresh Cherry Exports

Chile-China Trade Strengthens with Cherry Export Growth and Market Outlook

Chile's cherry exports to China have flourished under the 2005 Free Trade Agreement (FTA), solidifying China as Chile’s top trading partner. Cherries remain a flagship export, benefiting from strong demand, particularly during China's winter festivities. However, heavy reliance on one market has led to price volatility, exacerbated by record-high production.

To sustain growth, Chile is focusing on market diversification, quality improvements, and strategic partnerships. At Chile Week China, held from December 1 to December 7, 2024, an annual event aimed at promoting Chilean products, fostering trade, and strengthening bilateral relations with China, officials and industry leaders explored ways to enhance exports, including a new cooperation agreement with Hainan's Economic Development Bureau (IEDB). Looking ahead, expanding distribution channels and strengthening bilateral ties will be key to stabilizing prices and ensuring long-term market sustainability.