Opinion

Colombian Coffee Production Drops to Eight-Year Low on Bullish La Niña Conditions

Raw Common Coffee Bean
Colombia
Market & Price Trends
Sustainability & Environmental Impact
Published Jan 27, 2023
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Coffee production in Colombia, the leading producer of mild washed Arabica, has been on the decline for the past three years owing to heavy rainfall due to a prolonged La Nina event. In 2022, production dropped to 11.1 million 60-kg bags from 12.6 million bags the previous year, a 12% decline, and the smallest crop in the past eight years. The rainfall levels experienced in 2022 were the highest in over 40 years, with floods damaging crops. Low coffee production in 2022 led green coffee exports to decline by 8% to just over 11.4 million 60-kg bags from over 12.4 million bags in 2021. Similar weather patterns prevail in 2023, leading the WMO to predict that La Nina could extend well into this year, making it a third successive year in a row, a feat that has not been witnessed since 1950.

Coffee production in Colombia, the leading producer of mild washed Arabica, has been on the decline for the past three years owing to heavy rainfall due to a prolonged La Nina event. In 2022, production dropped to 11.1 million 60-kg bags from 12.6 million bags the previous year, a 12% decline, and the smallest crop in the past eight years. The largest monthly production drop of 29% was experienced in December 2022, with production falling to 981,000 bags from 1.4 million bags in November, taking production for Q4 2022 to 2.9 million bags, down 600K bags compared to 2021.


Source: Colombian Coffee Growers Federation

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the recent La Nina cycle began in September 2020 and lasted until the end of 2022, affecting the tropical Pacific area. La Niña conditions generally result in above average rainfall in Columbia. The rainfall levels experienced in 2022 were the highest in over 40 years, with floods damaging crops. According to José Ignacio Caballero, a Senior Manager for Tridge in Colombia, growers have struggled to cope with the adverse weather conditions. “Most production regions in the country suffered extreme rains last year due to La niña, which really affected the crop. This has been going on for two and a half years now. As a result, some farmers have started to replace their coffee crops with avocados due to the current avocado boom in Colombia,” he reported.

Low coffee production in 2022 led green coffee exports to decline by 8% to just over 11.4 million 60-kg bags from over 12.4 million bags in 2021. In December alone, coffee shipments fell 12% to around 1 million bags compared to almost 1.2 million exported in the same month of 2021. Colombian coffee exporters could start to lose market share in key markets such as the US, Germany, Belgium, and Canada, opening the door to competitors, Brazil, Vietnam, and Switzerland. In particular, Brazil's exports are expected to rise due to an 8% production increase to 54.9 million bags in 2023, despite a negative biennial year.

Similar weather patterns prevail in 2023, leading the WMO to predict that La Nina could extend well into this year, making it a third successive year in a row, a feat that has not been witnessed since 1950. As a result, Colombia’s coffee crop is set to be smaller than last year, and exports could drop to below 11 million bags, a 4-8% decrease according to Tridge estimates.

“Based on my research, the current weather patterns could last until May 2023, which would severely affect Colombia’s coffee production. The heavy rains have affected not just Colombia, but similar reports are coming out from Mexico,” concluded Caballero. 

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