Expected 10% Increase in Wheat Harvest India in 2020

Canola Seed & Rapeseed

Nepal

Published Jan 31, 2020

Wheat outputs in India are expected to increase by 10% due to favorable winter rains. The production of chickpeas, rapeseed, and mustard seed will also increase.

Weather conditions during winter are favorable for India’s wheat crop. Good winter rainfall and colder weather in the north of the country support a higher yield of wheat this year. It is expected that production can rise by as much as 10%, to 113 million tons, in the 2019/2020 season. Production of other products, such as Bengal gram (chickpeas), rapeseed, and mustard seed, is also expected to increase.

Rain and Increased Acreage Increases Output of Rabi Crops

The harvest of crops can be divided into two main periods in India: the rabi (winter) and kharif (summer) harvests. Both harvests heavily depend on the prior monsoon, as it leads to ideal moisture contents in the soil. Wheat and many other grains and legumes are rabi crops and planted around mid-November and harvested around April. Bountiful rainfall during summer, as well as a delayed monsoon, hurt kharif crops but led to high moisture levels in the soil, laying good ground for rabi crops. Combined with ideal growing conditions over the last two months, most rabi crops will see a higher output.

Besides ideal weather conditions increasing yield, the area under cultivation for many rabi crops, and especially for wheat, has increased by an average of 8.7%. For wheat, the cultivated area was increased by more than 10% and in some states, such as Maharashtra and Gujarat, by more than 70%. The reason for the increased acreage can be found in high consumer prices for wheat, encouraging farmers to plant more. The expected production of around 113 million tons is a record-high level for India.

Most Wheat Consumed Locally

Although most of India’s wheat is consumed locally, around 150K tons are exported as well, mainly to Nepal and Afghanistan. It is expected that exports to these regions will slightly rise with the increased harvest, but that most of the increased harvest will be destined for the domestic market. With high consumer prices for staple foods last year due to the shortage of important products such as onions, the increase in rabi wheat is expected to help raise rural demand.