Global Coffee Exports Down 6.1% Due to Low Shipments of Arabica Varieties

Published May 14, 2023

Global coffee exports continue to decline due to low exports of Arabica varieties from major countries of origin. Cumulative coffee exports for MY 2022/23 continue to decrease at an alarming rate, down 6.1% to 56.26 million bags compared to the 59.92 million bags at this stage last marketing year. During the first six months of MY 2022/23, exports of all Arabica varieties, including Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals, fell by 12% YoY to 33.1 million bags from 37.61 million bags in MY 2021/22. Global coffee exports are expected to continue on a downward trend in May, as production volumes coming out of Colombia and Brazil continue to decline.

Global coffee exports continue to decline due to low exports of Arabica varieties from major countries of origin. According to the International Coffee Organization, in March, global coffee exports were down 9.6% from the previous year, from 12.06 million bags to 10.9 million bags. As a result, cumulative coffee exports for MY 2022/23 continue to decrease at an alarming rate, down 6.1% to 56.26 million bags compared to the 59.92 million bags at this stage last marketing year.

Source: Tridge, ICO

During the first six months of MY 2022/23, exports of all Arabica varieties, including Colombian Milds, Other Milds, and Brazilian Naturals, fell by 12% YoY to 33.1 million bags from 37.61 million bags in MY 2021/22. In March, shipments of the Other Milds category decreased by 17.1% to 2.11 million bags from 2.55 million bags in MY 2021/22, the sixth consecutive month of negative growth for the Other Milds exports since the onset of the current coffee year. This downward trend has resulted in a fall of 18.2% to 8.86 million bags in cumulative exports of Other Milds in MY 2022/23 from 10.83 million bags in MY 2021/22.

Exports of the Brazilian Naturals category also fell by 13.5% to 3.08 million bags in March, resulting in cumulative exports of 18.61 million bags for MY 2022/23, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags in MY 2021/22. Unsurprisingly, the shifting fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals reflected the decrease in Brazilian coffee exports, which also fell by 14.8% to 2.78 million bags from 3.27 million bags the previous year.

The Colombian Milds witnessed a 17.4% drop in exports in March to 0.96 million bags, driven primarily by losses in Colombia, the leading country of origin of this coffee group. Colombia’s exports were down 19.2% in March 2023, the ninth consecutive month of negative growth. As a result of the continued downturn, cumulative exports of the Colombian Milds for MY 2022/23 are down 14.7% to 5.63 million bags, compared to 6.6 million bags in MY 2021/22.

Global exports of Robusta coffee amounted to 4.74 million bags in March, slightly lower than 4.78 million the previous marketing year. As a result, during the initial six months of MY 2022/23, coffee shipments have risen to 23.17 million bags from 22.31 million bags in MY 2021/22.

Global coffee exports are expected to continue on a downward trend in May, as production volumes coming out of Colombia and Brazil continue to decline. Already, Colombian coffee production in March dropped by 13% YoY to 799 thousand 60-kg bags, according to the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation. In Brazil, harvesting for MY 2023/24 has begun and a small crop is expected.