Global Pistachio Production Overview: 2022/23 Global Harvest Expected to Increase

US: Decrease Production with Large Carry-over

As the 2021/22 crop in the US was considered a bumper crop and a record harvest pistachio production volume at 523 thousand mt, the 2022/23 harvest was initially forecasted to be a reasonably good crop of about 470 thousand mt. However, severe droughts remain a concern in California and Arizona as the weather has been irregular. According to the American Pistachio Growers, there has been an erratic bloom registered in late April due to a frost followed by hot temperatures. This behavior could potentially be seriously damaging for the crop, as it happens when the US pistachio trees are forming the nuts in the shells when sufficient irrigation is particularly important.

Due to the continuous droughts and the late April frost, the latest estimates indicate that the harvest will only reach 453 thousand mt rather than the 470 thousand previously projected. The newest forecast would represent a 14.2% YoY decrease from the 2021/22 record harvest crop. According to Alex Zeid, Tridge’s Origination Manager, pistachio harvest in California has already started in W33 and Arizona in W31 of the year, and lower yields can already be seen. “The yields on the early pistachio varieties are lower than last year, with smaller sizes but good quality. The latest estimates indicate that the harvest will be lower in volume and size due to hail and heavy rains”, he explained.

“Pistachio sizing will also be an issue this season due to the damaged crops,” he added. As a result, the US pistachio industry is expected to carry over about 181 thousand mt to 192 thousand mt of inventory into the 2023 crop. This will be one of the largest carryovers the market has seen in recent years.

Iran: Production Keeps Decreasing with Very Low Stock

According to the Iranian Pistachio Association report, pistachio production is forecast to drop by 15% YoY to 115 thousand mt, as frost damage in many growing regions has continuously lowered yields despite being a year when farmers will try alternate bearing crop cycle methods. Since the 2021/22 crop, Iranian pistachio production has been severely damaged due to heat waves and droughts. The same weather issues for this 2022/23 harvest have made the pistachio harvest start one week earlier, from mid-August, and will continue until mid-October.

The fact that the harvest needed to be anticipated for a week has pistachio traders in Iran worried that production would further decline. As a result of the smaller crop, exports have been forecast to be 7% lower at 135 thousand mt with a 15 thousand mt of carryon stuck from last year.

In an effort to maintain the country’s distinguished position in the global pistachio market, several plans have been formulated by the Iranian government to support the industry, mainly by focusing on reducing the impact of the drought.

Turkey: A Substantial Recovery in Production is Forecast

Coming from a historical low 2021/22 crop, Turkish pistachio production for the 2022/23 harvest is forecast to increase by 180% YoY to 190 thousand mt. The 68 thousand mt harvested last season was a record low for Turkey owing to the extremely dry conditions over some of the most important growing regions in the early development stages of pistachios and an off-year crop. However, due to the impressive previous 2020/21 crop that amounted to 258 thousand mt, Turkey remains with a high carry-on stock of about 190 thousand mt, which will put Turkey in an excellent availability position to supply the main European markets. As a result, export shipments have been forecasted by the Turkish Statistical Institute to be 230 thousand mt, which would be a record-breaking export volume for Turkey.