Global Pork Meat Trade is likely to be driven by China’s Growing Demand in 2022

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Meat

China

Supply Chain Management

Market & Price Trends

Published Nov 2, 2021

China has been showing the fastest-growing meat consumption speed in the world, exceeding the majority of the European countries. However domestic pork production in China has fallen to the outbreaks of ASF and subsequent fall in the national herd size of hogs. In 2022, it is estimated that pork production will fall by 2% while imports will increase by 6%. Furthermore, the import of beef and chicken meat is also forecasted to grow in 2022 due to increasing consumption patterns and preferences in China.

China’s appetite for meat is growing every day despite recurring outbreaks of COVID-19 and the African Swine Flu (ASF). China is the largest consumer of pork meat while the consumption of beef and chicken is also expected to be higher than for any other country apart from the United States. The momentum of meat consumption is likely to continue in China, as disposable incomes increase and the middle class continues to expand. The rising demand for meat has started exerting pressure on global trade for these commodities. For pork in particular, with the outbreak of ASF, the size of the national hog herd has reduced significantly, causing pork meat shortage in the domestic market as well as the international market.

Global pork production is forecast to decline by 2% compared to the volumes in 2021 to 104.2 million tons in 2022. The fall in production is driven by lower production in China as the hog sector adjusts to rapidly changing market conditions. Chinese pork production is projected to fall by 5% year on year to reach roughly 43.8 million tons. On top of this, Pork prices have fallen dramatically since the beginning of 2021 and have remained persistently low even though recent national holidays usually mark an uptick in pork consumption. The lower prices are likely to discourage the pork rearers from investing in the production process and cause pork production to decline and imports to rise in 2022.

China pork imports are expected to increase by nearly 6% year-over-year, after falling in 2021 as production recovered. Despite an increase, they are expected to fall below the 2020 levels when ASF had made a huge impact on the pork supplies and the shortage had become acute. China imports pork mainly from Spain, the United States, Brazil, Germany, and Denmark. The exports have grown from USD 1.5 billion in 2015 to a whopping USD 12.5 billion in 2020, which is an increase of more than 700%.

Source: Tridge. Trade Data.

Changing consumption patterns and preferences coupled with improving the food service environment have also increased the demand for beef and chicken meat in China. The consumption and demand have been further triggered by limited pork production. Beef and chicken meat imports have increased for the eighth consecutive year in 2022. Beef consumption and imports gained ground as China struggled with tight pork supplies over the last few years. While the chicken meat imports are forecast to grow by 3%, the beef imports are projected to grow by 8.3% compared to. Despite the growing beef and chicken imports, China’s share of global trade remains small compared to that of other meats. If the ASF outbreaks continue to push down pork production, China’s meat imports will continue to grow to meet the domestic demand.